02 November 2008

New PM & The Malaysian Economy 2009

1. A lot of people whom I know have been talking about the 2009 economy and of course the politics within the country. Events during the weekend has relatively installed Malaysia's 7th Prime Minister due to the landslide nominations within his political party. So, how will this man serves his rakyat? How will he improve the conditions of the economy, the poor as well as the disgruntled voters who denied the Coalition of the majority they so fancied? And thousands of questions beyond these....

2. Sticking to economy, I guess the new PM has no choice but to undertake a fiscal approach in areas of infrastructure spending by rolling out construction projects from 2009 onwards. Many are forecasting that 2009 will be worse compared to 2008. If true, the retail and service sectors will definitely be battered in the next 14 months. I have a friend who is in sales and marketing for a well-known golfing equipment and apparel company confirmed sales are very much slower and sales budget 2008 will not be met. Sub-contractors within my industry, i.e. construction, are leaving the scene to avoid further bleeding. The volatile construction material prices before September 2008 practically and naturally reduced the number of private funded projects in Malaysia. Hence, all in all consumer spending and private funded projects dipped. As such, who else has the motivation to spend? answer is no other than our Government.

3. From end 1980s to just before the 1997 financial crisis, the economy practically grew at the fastest pace. How did we do it? Dr. M and the Construction industry. Some have said that if you want to inject liquidity and activity into the Malaysian economy, the only way is by pumping tonnes of monies into the construction industry by rolling out mega projects. These will in turn flow in auto mode within the value chain of businesses in the country when cash flows to suppliers, sub-contractors, officials, service providers and others, where in turn these recipients would continue to spend on their end. The retail and manufacturing guys will then can sell more. Hence, everyone says that they are able to cari makan (able to survive on). So, I believe construction is the only, most direct and fastest manner to fix our economy.

4. Like it or not, 2009 is a vital year for the ruling Government should it still has the motivation and presence to regain the support of the Malaysian majorities. When the new PM takes office, he has less than 4 years to implement strategies to regain the popular votes. If construction sector is the choice to pump prime the economy, projects have to be rolled out in 2009 - 2010 so that these projects are completed prior to the next election. He needs to 'show' what he can plan and implement before voters puts a few 'x'-es onto those colourful ballot papers.

5. Economy growth in 2009 is expected to be slower and there is a high chance that Malaysia will avoid recession thanks to the high saving rates. Things will recover and expand in the last quarter of 2009. In construction we trust!

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